Hi All,
We have now, from the news service Axios, a list of points that make up the Trump plan which has been presented to Ukraine as a take it or leave it offer. This is what Trump has been pressuring the Ukrainians to sign, using the threats of the US walking away from the negotiations. The plan that Axios has seen is arguably the worst possible deal for Ukraine—far worst that most were saying Trump would try to impose. Here are the salient points.
To understand the most terrible parts of the deal, and where the US is bending over backwards to help Putin, you have to start with points 1 and 4.
Point 1 on Crimea ends the strategic world that the US has tried to institute since 1945 and in particular would end the European settlement that has governed the continent as well. It might come as a shock to you, but not a single European state has expanded its borders by conquest since 1945. Yes there have been countries dissolve (Yugoslavia and the USSR) but they broke up into constituent parts. However there has been no case of a country expanding its size by militarily seizing the territory of another for 80 years.
This will end that world, and establish a new principle that basically puts every European state on Russia’s (and Belarus’s) borders in real jeopardy. Now if you invade, ethnically cleanse and hold—its yours legally.
I will write much more about this later—but if Ukraine gives up legal claim to Crimea (which would require a constitutional change in Ukraine) Ukraine is establishing legal precedent that could be used by Russia to take over the rest of the country eventually.
Its the thin end of the wedge in the Russian plan to end Ukraine.
Point 4 on sanctions is almost as bad. This lifts all the restrictions on trade with Russia that have been in place since Russia invaded Crimea—its a permanent Russian economic victory. It would allow the USA and China to help rebuild the Russian military and economy rapidly (China as I said on monday could flood Russia with finished military production). Sanctions have been one of Europe’s continuing pressure points to try and moderate Putin’s behavior—they would now be gone.
The other devastating thing that point 4 implies is that all Russian assets are unfrozen and returned to their owners—so Ukraine and Europe have no access to these funds to help Ukraine rebuild.
The other points are either concessions to Russia or things that sound like they mean something when they do not.
Point 2 and “De-Facto” recognition of the occupied territories (with not a single Russian withdrawal it seems) basically starts the process of them eventually becoming de jure parts of Russia.
Point 3 on NATO and the EU is the USA and Russia basically dictating the future of European security—and in one case where they clearly have not right to do this.
When it comes to NATO, this is just clear evidence of what Trump has believed—and it accepts the Russia lie that the war started because of NATO. I suppose the real change is that this seems to be a permanent ban on Ukraine in NATO.
As for the EU part of Point 3, Ukraine is a sovereign European state and its membership is not something to be decided by Trump and Putin. The US and Russia have no right to say which states can or cannot join the EU. The fact that its even in the text of point 3 shows how they were looking for things to seem like concessions—which are not.
Frankly the EU should tell the US to stuff itself on this.
Point 5 on enhanced energy cooperation is just a restating of the arm twisting minerals deal that the US has been trying to foist on Ukraine. Its meaningless as is, there seem to be no investment amounts, agreements, etc.
What is not there is almost as important as what is. There are no security guarantees for Ukraine, no reparations that Russia will have to pay to help rebuild Ukraine, no US commitments of any kind for Ukraine.
Under this proposal the US has become formally an enabler of dictatorship and a supporter of the expansion of a dictatorship in Europe and the enemy of freedom and democracy. I hope European states have the courage to stand with Ukraine in opposition to it.
People Should Have Seen This Coming For A Long Time
A short I told-you-so. This Trump plan should not be a shock—though undoubtedly many people will probably say that they are. He has been pushing for exactly such a plan for years now. This July when some Trump backers were saying that he would try and get a good deal for Ukraine, I rather lost my cool and tried to say exactly what kind of agreement Trump would try to foist on Ukraine—and it was not pretty here were the salient points.
Its all there—Russia keeping the territory, Russia getting sanctions relief, no new aid for Ukraine, no NATO for Ukraine, no security guarantees for Ukraine. Even the negotiating respectfully with Putin and suspiciously with Zelensky was exactly what we have seen.
Trump is what he has always been. The sad thing is still, even now, not all Europeans understand this.
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