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update 10:41 p.m. – The National Weather Service has dropped the severe watch for Lubbock and the central South Plains. For the Rolling Plains, east of Lubbock, the watch now goes until 1 a.m.
A complex of thunderstorms will build southeastward, with heavy rain and potential for damaging wind.
Then we’ll wait for the next round of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, some that will probably become severe.
The National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for Motley County until 9:30 p.m. The significant rotation on radar that prompted this warning has weakened. The tornado warning was allowed to expire at 9:30 p.m.
A severe thunderstorm warning continues for Floyd and Motley counties, for the potential for hail and damaging wind.
A flash flood warning is in effect for Floyd and Motley counties for one to three inches of rain that has already fallen, with the potential for another inch or two. This heavy rain will cause flooding over this area.
Storms farther west of Lubbock have weakened below severe limits. These storms are moving slowly, leading to localized flooding.
901 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MOTLEY COUNTY…
At 900 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 5 miles west of Matador, moving southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD…Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.
SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near… Matador around 905 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Roaring Springs.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…TAKE COVER NOW!
Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) – update 7:18 p.m. – Scattered thunderstorms over the western South Plains have been slow movers, producing some isolated heavy rain. Warning have been issued for 1″ hail and 60mph gust potential. These storms are moving N/NE about 15-20mph.
update 5:15 p.m. – Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed NW of Lubbock, movement is to the NE.
posted 3:15 p.m. – The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for most of the South Plains, including Lubbock, until 11 p.m. Tuesday. The watch includes Swisher, Briscoe, Hall, Lamb, Hale, Floyd, Motley, Cottle, Cochran, Hockley, Lubbock, Crosby, Dickens, King, Yoakum, Terry, Lynn, Garza, Kent, Gaines, Dawson, Borden and Scurry counties.
As of 3 p.m., isolated storms have fired up near Briscoe and Hall counties. These remain below severe limits at this time.
This afternoon’s focus is thunderstorm initiation through the mid-to-late afternoon hours. Dew points across most of the forecast area have risen into the 50s, with a dryline set up near the Texas/New Mexico state line. Conditions west, behind the dryline, have dried the boundary layer, and dew points are only in the 30s for most and a few 40s.
A few potential initiation spots include areas east of the dryline, up the Highway 385 corridor to south of Dimmitt, toward the mouth of Palo Duro Canyon where terrain induced cumulus has begun to form, closer to I- 27 is a potential initiation spot, and finally another significant area would be west of Lubbock along the dryline.
As far as timing goes, 4-6 p.m., storms are expected to develop to the west of I-27. 6-11 p.m., storms will shift eastward over the I-27 corridor. Lastly, 11 p.m. to 2 a.m., storms are expected to move off the Caprock and diminish. Some storms may become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Although the tornado threat remains low, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Wind gusts are forecasted to remain between 60 to 70 mph; hail size is expected to remain between quarter and golf ball, but baseball size cannot be ruled out; tornadoes are likely, but again, cannot be ruled out.
Wednesday
Looking ahead, we again expect thunderstorms to develop tomorrow afternoon. There isn’t a clear signal exactly where storms will first develop, but it may again be west of Lubbock. Storms that develop tomorrow could become severe, with hail and wind.
Rest of the week
It’s an active pattern, with at least a low chance for a thunderstorm late each day rest of this week and into the weekend. One day can influence the set-up for the next day, so we can’t be too specific on where storms should first develop each day. While there isn’t a strong signal on any single day for lots of severe weather, we have the ingredients for at least some strong to severe storms each day.
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